🇺🇦 Help us to save Ukrainian cultural heritage!

https://www.weaponstoukraine.com/kampane/archa 🇺🇦

🌲ikt has funded planting of 1,145 trees and the prevention of 54.1 tCO2e from being emitted

https://ecologi.com/ikt 🌲

  • 156 Posts
  • 232 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
cake
Cake day: June 17th, 2023

help-circle



  • The first time Samsung and micron colluded on dram pricing was in the early 2000s when money was also falling from the sky due to high demand

    Yes mate, money was falling from the sky so much:

    The first two years in which a DRAM conspiracy is alleged to have existed, 1999 and 2000, were good for the industry, with significant revenue growth and several swings in price, notes DRAM analyst Sherry L. Garber of Semico Research Corp., in Phoenix, Ariz. In 2001, however, DRAM revenues fell by about 61 percent. The average aggregate selling price, a weighted measure of the price of all types of DRAM, dropped 83 percent; the average price per megabit, which can fall even in good years, plummeted 76 percent, to below production costs.

    Looks like the price was swinging up and down at the time, so much for money falling out of the sky due to high demand ???

    As long as the conspirators agree to pricing, no one will bat an eye at claims of high demand or supply chain issues because all your conspirators also have similarly high pricing.

    There is no need to agree to collude on pricing when:

    Meanwhile, SK Hynix is considering a U.S. listing as its stock price in South Korea surges, and in October, the company said it had secured demand for its entire 2026 RAM production capacity.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/10/micron-ai-memory-shortage-hbm-nvidia-samsung.html

    You are literally sold out of all inventory for the year.

    RAM is so expensive, Samsung won’t even sell it to Samsung

    Due to rising prices from the “AI” bubble, Samsung Semiconductor reportedly refused a RAM order for new Galaxy phones from Samsung Electronics.

    https://www.pcworld.com/article/2998935/ram-is-so-expensive-samsung-wont-even-sell-it-to-samsung.html

    That’s pretty good price collusion if so! Fucking even yourself over in the process!

    All these companies impacted and so far none have sued for what you think is completely obvious price collusion?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025–present_global_memory_supply_shortage

    So far just a bunch of rag tag 17 random people suing Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron in the U.S. District Court… and here’s how their chances look

    HBM carries far higher margins than commodity DRAM, and every maker had an independent incentive to chase Nvidia’s order book. The late-2022 cuts came during the worst memory downturn in over a decade, when SK hynix and Micron were posting operating losses, and Samsung held out on cuts months longer than its rivals, which is awkward material for a case looking to rely on a lockstep narrative. Crucial’s shutdown also coincided with Micron reallocating output toward data center customers paying more. As such, every allegation in the complaint has a non-conspiratorial explanation available, and under Twombly, the plaintiffs need there to be at least a plausible conspiracy theory to have a chance of success.

    https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/samsung-sk-hynix-and-micron-face-a-third-dram-price-fixing-lawsuit

    Good luck with your conspiracy, to me this would be the worst time to collude, especially if you had spare capacity and insane demand that your only few rivals would snap up in an instant

    By the way:

    SK Hynix will invest an astronomical sum totaling 600 trillion won in building the Yongin semiconductor cluster. Initially, SK Hynix planned to invest 30 trillion won per fab, for a total of 120 trillion won across four fabs. However, calculations have completely changed recently. The first fab, which broke ground in February this year and is scheduled for completion in May 2027, alone is estimated to require approximately 120 trillion won investment. The first fab investment alone matches the scale of the original total budget. The sharp increase in investment results from fab expansion combined with external variables.

    https://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=258178

    According to the industry on the 29th, LH will soon place orders for construction to create the industrial complex and begin work in the second half of next year. Samsung Electronics has said it plans to invest 360 trillion won here. However, the industry expects the investment size to grow further as construction of production facilities proceeds. In addition to Samsung Electronics production lines, more than 80 semiconductor materials, parts, equipment, and design corporations, as well as research institutions, will also move in.

    https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-it/2025/12/29/S6LSNGZ6B5E3XLY5AVVWA4KQFE/

    Marking the start of construction on the largest semiconductor manufacturing facility in U.S. history, Micron executives to join federal, state and local leaders to celebrate the $100 billion project in Central New York

    https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-announces-groundbreaking-historic-new-york-megafab

    Investing hundreds of billions of dollars into new semiconductor manufacturing facilities just to fool the regular RAM buying pleb!

    ha ha turns out they weren’t needed at all, all this money is just being spent to fool you into paying higher prices for memory! or something











  • That’s funny I do the same thing but have different results to you

    That issue with ai giving the answer away was still a feature in the local models but in the last 6 months with Qwen and Gemma being released is way better

    I would ask things like ‘Give me a french word to practice and don’t tell me the translation’ and it would say:

    Try translating Bonjour! (Hello)

    And I would have to clarify and then it would forget it was the pits but this has stopped happening with later local models like Qwen and Gemma

    Maybe give Claude another go, Sonnet 5 just came out and be strict with your question: say tell me how to answer this problem but you MUST NOT tell me the answer, you can use other examples but not this one, etc

    and see how you go














  • They’ve booked future profit from OpenAI owing them almost a trillion dollars. If OpenAI can’t pay that bill when the time comes, Oracle is completely fucked.

    I’d say they’re the ones most likely to get screwed on this but I just don’t see how a tech titan drawdown causes the whole world go into a great depression

    This isn’t 1987 where only upper middle class people invest in stocks, everyone has a stock app on their phone these days, if jobs aren’t lost money will continue to pump because line goes up

    Maybe I’m just too optimistic but if captain dickfingers giving the world a tariff hit, a global pandemic and “the worst oil crisis ever” can’t put a dent in things, I just don’t think a pullback on AI spend is going to do it (unless there’s a ton of other structural problems in the global economy that bloggers will point out how obvious it was only once it fails)

    Bad comparison. Spotify has already been a profitable, publicly-traded company for years.

    That doesn’t wipe my memory of listening to reddit users and lemmy users since 2012 talk about how streaming music is unprofitable and will go broke any day, to which I argued they are after market share (to which I received many a downvote, lemmy eh?)

    Remember how Uber was about to go broke? Not going to lie, this literally feels like just more circlejerking about companies that are spending a lot and will go broke any day now…

    5 minutes ago Lemmy was comparing AI to NFT’s and Crypto, in 2026!

    Sorry if I hold a grudge and you are not as dim-witted and not good with computers as the average lemmy user, it’s hard to shake hearing the same prophecies I’ve been hearing about other high spending companies for decades

    And without seeing GAAP accounting showing where all the money goes in support of inference, I am highly doubtful that it’s profitable.

    You’re right but we do have a little bit of an idea:

    On inference alone, both companies project profitability

    https://aiafterhours.substack.com/p/openai-vs-anthropic-the-121-billion

    https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261756528-anthropic-openai-ipo-tradingkey

    Anecdotes aren’t data

    I didn’t just say an anecdote, I linked to this as well:

    Anthropic’s Insane Enterprise Surge Made Them #1 by Early 2026

    https://lemmy.world/post/48781135

    Maybe even a little

    Claude is now embedded in 60% of Fortune 500 companies’ productivity suites as of Q2 2025

    They are very clearly in the business segment, I’ve heard nothing like this for Qwen or GLM or local hosted models, in fact when self hosting was bought up the dev’s mentioned “??? you can’t self host claude ??”

    I work with actual machine-learning engineers

    This is like saying I work with actual system admins, they say that Windows is terrible and that it’ll be the year of the linux desktop any day now

    You need to vibe check the office and devs vs the engineers

    The vibe in the office (and what I’m reading) is that claude is gold

    That said I spoke to a normal person the other day and they hadn’t heard of claude at all, blew my mind


  • No business that is built entirely on AI is profitable. Not one.

    The major players behind them all

    nvidia, microsoft, google, oracle, etc are all profitable

    Training is an ongoing expense, not a startup expense.

    inference is profitable, training is not

    training is what the majority of data centre spend is going towards

    if they want to be profitable pull back the training but right now they are competing for market share

    feel free to look back at all the times lemmy predicted the end of spotify because it wasn’t profitable, now they turn around and cry it’s making money

    Qwen, running in a well-designed harness such as OpenCode, with a carefully written AGENTS.md file, is of comparable performance to at least Claude Sonnet, and possibly Claude Opus. All without the massive, ludicrous infrastructure requirements.

    At work nobody is talking like this, everyone is talking about claude and it makes sense, it’s the best thing since vscode

    https://lemmy.world/post/48781135