A recession is coming — not the manicured kind economists dress up in euphemism, but a real one, the kind that redefines the word retroactively. Niall Ferguson has been mapping the terrain: geopolitical shocks, energy disruption, inflation that won’t be reasoned with. History, he notes, does not reward economies caught in that particular combination. It never has.
But this one carries something extra, something structural.
For years, the American economy ran on a dangerous illusion. Markets soared. Asset prices ballooned. Those already inside the system — with capital, with cushions, with connections — accumulated wealth at a pace that would have seemed obscene even a decade ago. Stocks surged. Property values became punchlines told at the expense of renters.
For everyone else — those without a trust fund or a safety net — it has been a slow slide into the abyss. Groceries crept upward, then sprinted. Rent became a monthly reckoning. Credit cards filled the gap, then tightened it. The middle class now occupies an unfamiliar position in American life — more likely to descend the ladder than to climb it.
Recessions do not hit such societies evenly. They amplify what already exists. The wealthy absorb, the rest surrender.
Bro America is heading for a depression and potential Balkanization
Been saying it since his first election. I still do not think America survives the orange fascist.
i prefer balkanization, so we cant get rid of the gop welfare states once and for all.
Im Worried about them having nukes. Can’t let toddlers have access or worst sell them off.
It would take too long to list all the reasons why this result is increasingly likely.
and increasingly desired for the rest of the world.
Balkanization doesn’t sound like the worst outcome here. Frankly, it doesn’t even sound like a bad option. The US already have clearly bordered states, this could even happen without bloodshed.
I can’t say anything about how likely it is though. But something’s gotta give if you ask me. Democrats winning the next election isn’t enough.
Wow that sounds nice. Where do I donate?
Balkanization could help us get back to some of America quicker. What was it like for the Balkans before?
It was Yugoslavia. Then war.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars
To extremely simplify a complex situation, I’d say some countries are better off now, others worse.
Just a side note, but this article reads like chatgpt
12 em dashes. You’re right.
Parallel sentence structure, word triplets, unnecessary emphasis, exagerration. It always grosses me out when I see AI writing.
Common words include delve, surrender, empower, dynamic, amplify, etc.
And says nothing more than the expanded headline.
So much
Not X but Y
not the manicured kind economists dress up in euphemism, but a real one
Yeah that’s going to be lost on most people.
The middle class now occupies an unfamiliar position in American life — more likely to descend the ladder than to climb it.
Hmm. Hasn’t this been quoted as the reason for MAGA’s rise?
Let’s see here… Billions paid for illegal tariffs, massive increases in food prices, a collapse of international tourism, reduction in all travel due to the refusal to fund TSA, massive DOGE layoffs, further layoffs and closures of multiple government agencies, multiple government shutdowns, fuel price increases we’re just seeing the start of, double digit electricity rate increases, doubling and tripling of healthcare costs for millions of Americans, and international boycotts of American products. That’s just some of the dumpster fire Trump and the Grand Old Pedophiles have provided us. Too bad there’s not a way to include Trump’s misery factor.
We’ll be very lucky if it isn’t a full blown depression.
massive increases in food prices
I’d like to break this down a little. In my EU country, compared to pre-Covid *memories*, a rough estimate would be an increase of 25%. I think any additional increase due to fuel prices raised by the Iran war hasn’t hit us yet.
Can you relate to this rough percentage? Has the Iran war fully “hit” groceries yet?
As long as we don’t call it a depression we’ll be fine
But we never got out of the one trump started even before covid…
Good
It’s already here.
AI worship
