The Trump-Epstein 1.3 trillion dollar “excursion” failure.

Just for fun, hot takes time!

1 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

“Including in Lebanon”. So, thats how Israel is gonna spike this.

2 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

Again, Israel will surely not abide by this

3 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.

Ok…? I’m reasonably sure that’s not actually a hard deadline, given past precedent in this domain, with regard to the orange regime’s handling of this whole clusterfuck

4 — Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

I’m gonna watch what we do, not what we say, because I don’t trust the orange regime further than I can throw it

5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

You can pontificate all you want, but de-mining an area that large is a major pain in the ass, and there’s a reasonable chance things will be missed. I seriously doubt it can be done rigorously in a month.

6 — The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

So, just to ballpark the numbers: this works out as a mean tax burden for the 160M-ish taxpayers in the US to a bit under $2,000. So thanks for that, you fucking shitgoblins. Good job starting a war that didn’t need to be fought and then shelling out our cash as reparations. What a bunch of complete fuckwits.

7 — The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

So, on the face of it, thawing relations and reducing punitive sanctions - that have done little, if anything, to meaningfully impair Iran in a strategic sense - is imo a reasonably good outcome. On the flip side, I’m 100% sure the GOP will claim at some point in the coming years that Biden or Obama or Hillary or AOC or whatever did this, because the rules are made up and the points don’t matter, and don’t believe your lying ears and eyes because that’s un-American

8 — The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

There was already an agreement that was intended to accomplish this. And orangeboi unilaterally tore it up. So… good job getting back to the starting line…?

9 — Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

Okay? But also, let’s see what Israel does in the next couple months

10 — The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

Again, thawing relations good. Also again, 100% sure this will be blamed on Democrats with some mental gymnastics in the future because causal relationships and facts don’t seem to matter anymore

11 — The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

See commentary for 10

12 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.

This also already existed, and was torn up by orangeboi unilaterally

13 — After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

This seems like it’s just a bunch of words that don’t actually say anything

14 — The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.

Okay. But this also kinda gives the orange regime an easy out. They just have to direct the US ambassador to the UN to veto it. The regime has absolutely done dumber things than that.

TL;DR (with some hyperbole because that’s how we do geopolitical negotiations these days I guess so let’s lean into it)

• the average (mean) US taxpayer gets the privilege of shelling out a bit under $2k to a state that’s effectively hostile to us
• some rather flimsy looking framework that appears to have absolutely zero provision for tying Israel’s hands in terms of belligerence - and it’s key to note Israel essentially started the whole fucking thing anyways
• recreates parts of things that were already in place at one point, but that orangeboi unilaterally tore up, because he is racist and doesn’t like black people and has a special level of hatred for black presidents and anything said black president did
• creates a surprisingly permissive environment for Iran with regard relaxation of sanctions, which is admittedly good, but I’m simultaneously confident that the orange regime will at some point go “nuh uh, that wasn’t us, it was THE DEMOCRATS”, because that’s more or less the regime’s SOP
• on top of the gigantic Israel-shaped loophole in this whole thing, provides the US with a very obvious unilateral loophole to spike things as well
• hopefully will start to store trade and commerce in the region of the Strait of Hormuz, but again, I am gonna wait and see how this pans out in the next month or to, particularly with regard to what Israel does

Israel 🇮🇱 will probably violate this clause and cause the war to continue.